TECHNICAL (SYNOPTIC) WEATHER DISCUSSION

* UPDATED 3/27 11:30 PM *

SHORT RANGE

It will not be cold enough for any winter weather with the next storm for the early part of the week. And it will not even be close as far as rain versus snow. Even more so than what was opined here at snowi95 as the polar vortex due to progression breaks east and does NOT build south. So the shot of unseasonably cold weather was a very brief shot as the pacific branch underneath any arctic air reigns supreme.

It is yet another impressive mid branch system which will bring with it a slug of heavy rain for Monday. And yes, unfortunately another flood threat for the rivers and streams in the Northern Mid Atlantic and Southern New England regions which really cannot handle any more rain. A look at the GFS QPF output reveals another widespread 2 to 5 inch rain event. With the NAM QPF output a bit lower at 1.5 to 2 inches of rain. I am inclined to go more with the NAM, and lets hope that rainfall amounts do NOT get up to 3 inches, especially in the flood prone and vulnerable areas. Even 1 to 2 inches of rain will result in problems for those that have already had their fair share of flooding. So the situation is NOT good with regard to more flooding looking likely in places that have already seen it.

MEDIUM RANGE

CLEAR SAILING AFTER THE STORM

After this LAST, and I mean LAST big rain event comes weather for the corridor and places just inland that will be more like late spring. Daytime highs for New Jersey and most of the Hudson Valley will hit 80 at some point with the next warm surge (more likely for Friday through Easter Sunday). For the coastal areas with such a warm surge on a synoptic scale and with such a cold ocean, always has the threat of a strong sea breeze surge. Like all early spring warm ups for the corridor / coast the sea breeze has to be watched on days when the synoptic gradient is light and / or the winds are out of the south or east. On some days it may get into the 70s for a few hours, even at the coast, but the sea breeze should send temperatures tumbling back into the 60s, and even into the 50s by the early evening. The density of the colder ocean air also has that ability to bring in the ocean air resulting in fog and scud clouds for coastal areas. This is very difficult to forecast but I wanted to mention it as this is the only fly in the ointment to what should be picture perfect weather for the second half of the week and right into Easter Sunday.

Nothing really new here from snowi95 and I am noticing that other weather outlets are catching up now as the MOS numbers are starting to climb. However they are still not warm enough, especially further inland and away from the coast.

LONG RANGE

The call here at snowi95 was for temperatures to average above normal for April and April gets off to a roaring and soaring start temperature wise for at least the first 10 days of the month, and the pronounced mild to warm weather should continue through the 15^th. A study of teleconnections which was the golden nugget to forecasting warmer temperatures in stretches of March proved to be prudent, and the first half of April is no different in this regard. The only difference now is the source region of air masses being warmer to the west and southwest

(http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_096.shtml - check out the warm tongue of air in the lower plains on the GFS 96 hour thickness prog, something not really seen so far this year and that is heading our way), along with the retreat of any cold / low heights all the way west and north of Alaska and into far Northeastern Asia –

(http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/targ/z500ensmnP2.2010032712.html). This should teleconnect and lead to a period of (at least) some flat ridging into the Eastern part of the US, and thus yielding another period of mild to warmer weather, especially during the daytime hours. With the dryness of the air masses and the lack of humidity it can still get chilly at night, especially late at night with night time still having some length to it. But overall a warmer and drier pattern looks underway for the corridor / coast. Finally with the change in seasons the big storms / Nor‘easters (one after another) appears to be over with.

Now with the threat of any winter weather completely over with for the rest of the season snowi95 is going into seasonal shut down mode. This is a winter weather site for the Northeast, and was not intended to be an all year round weather site. I hope you enjoyed the information and forecasts presented throughout the winter and early spring here at snowi95. I sincerely wish you a great spring and summer and hope you return for the 2010-11 winter season.

Good Night! – Jay